Dollar Rupee this week was moving between range of 67.30 to 67.80 from Monday to Thursday but on Friday it shot up to 68.00 after FED interest rate increase and ECB decision to end Bond Buying Program. After Friday close, US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods and in retaliation, China imposed tariffs on US goods thus restarting a fresh trade war and a Risk off environment. Dollar rupee is trading at 68.47 in offshore market, a 45 paise up move after the friday Close. It has closed all technical resistances in daily chart. In weekly chart, the next resistance is 68.63 (Bollinger Band). In daily chart support levels are 67.68 (7 day moving average) and 67.42 (14 day moving average)
Factors to watch
OIL : up move in oil prices is likely to result in up-move and down move is likely to result in down move in the pair.
US 10 year Yield : a spike may trigger an outflow in emerging markets including India while a fall in US yield may result in appreciation.
Indian 10 year Yield : Last week the yield almost touched 8 % resulting in spike in pair on Friday. An up-move in yields may result a further outflow in bond markets.
Dollar Index : An up move in Dollar index may result in pair moving up while dollar weakness may result in appreciation
FDI Flows : The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs allowed an additional Rs 24,000 crore (USD 3.5 billion) foreign direct investment into private sector lender HDFC Bank. This inflow will result in a sharp down-move in USD/INR