18 April 2022
World Market – Headlines
After Kuroda’s remarks, the Japanese yen briefly rises.
The Nikkei 225 index in Japan has dropped over2%, while China’s first-quarter GDP has exceeded estimates.
As the Ukraine situation worsens, oil prices climb due to supply concerns.
Currency
Indian Rupee
USD/INR Spot reference 76.30: The USD/INR gapped up on Wednesday, beginning at 76.1850 against a previous day’s finish of 76.1300. Initial buying activity in fixing, higher crude prices, and risk-off sentiment in domestic equity brought the pair near a high of 75.2650, then to a low of 76.1450 before ending at 76.1750.
Last week’s broad market snapshot was dominated by central bank activity. The RBNZ raised interest rates by 50 basis points, the BOC raised rates by 50 basis points, and the ECB did nothing. According to ECB President Christine Lagarde, the Russian/Ukraine war has increased the downside risk to growth, while higher oil prices have increased the upside risk to inflation. The EUR/USD fell sharply from 1.0920 to 1.0758 after the ECB’s monetary policy statement was released, then again during the press conference. This week, Canada, New Zealand, and the European Union will all release inflation figures. The RBA minutes, US housing statistics, and Global Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are all crucial economic data this week.
USD/INR Price Action and Technicals: The intraday negative move in the USD/INR is anticipated to find support near 75.24 and 75.1450, preserving the potential for the next rally near 75.55 levels. The strength of this advance would be questioned if it fell below 76.00 unexpectedly. Intraday immediate resistance is located at 75.3450, and it is expected to hold today. Due to dollar inflows after the long weekend, we may see some selling in the pair.
76.1450 to 76.5450 is the day’s range.
Other Currencies
Even as the US dollar was constrained to narrow ranges against most other currencies due to the holidays, the yen had a small reprieve after hitting new two-decade lows in response to Japanese policymaker comments on Monday.
In early Asian trading, the yen plummeted to a two-decade low of 126.795, before both Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki expressed concerns, causing it to recover as high as 126.25. The rebound, however, was short-lived, and the price was soon back at 126.57.
Japanese policymakers have been loud about their concerns over the yen’s decline, especially since it fell below 125 per dollar on April 11.
The euro was unchanged at$1.08, slightly above last week’s low of$1.0758, the lowest level since April 2020.
The Australian dollar was trading at$0.7385, down from last week’s highs of $0.747.
The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of currencies, was at 100.553, holding above the 100.4 mark after a recent rally from below 100.
Bitcoin, a cryptocurrency, is still hovering around the $40,000 barrier, last changing hands at $39,748.
Equity
Indian Equity
The SGX Nifty’s trends point to a dismal start for the broader index on Monday.
On the daily and weekly charts, the Sensex sank 237 points to 58,339, while the Nifty fell 55 points to 17,476 and formed bearish candles. During the week ended Thursday, the Nifty fell 1.7 percent.
The pivot charts show that the Nifty’s important support level is 17,401, followed by 17,326. The major resistance levels to watch if the index rises are 17,607 and 17,739.
Other Markets
Investors reacted to the release of Chinese economic statistics, particularly first-quarter gross domestic product figures, by selling Japanese stocks first thing Monday morning.
In morning trade in Japan, the Nikkei 225 plummeted 1.8 percent as shares of Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group both fell more than 1%. The Topix index lost 1.59 percent of its value.
The Shanghai Composite was down 0.88 percent, while the Shenzhen component was down 0.733 percent.
The Kospi index in South Korea fell slightly. Outside of Japan, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks fell 0.35 percent.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s futures dropped 150 points or 0.4 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent. Nasdaq futures were 0.8 percent lower.
OIL
Oil prices increased on Monday as fears of tighter global supply grew, with the developing crisis in Ukraine raising the risk of more penalties from the West against Russia, the world’s leading exporter.
Brent futures were up $1.50, or 1.3 percent, at $113.20 a barrel, while WTI futures were up 98 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $107.93 a barrel.
According to an OPEC report released this week, OPEC output increased by only 57,000 barrels per day in March, falling short of the 253,000 barrels per day increase allowed under the OPEC+ agreement.
With international benchmark Brent crude futures up 1.32 percent to $113.18 per barrel in the morning of Asia trading hours, oil prices were higher. Crude oil futures in the United States rose 1.2 percent to $108.23 a barrel.
Economic Events
Economic Calendar | ||||
Monday, Apr 18, 2022 | ||||
Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous |
7:30 | CNY | Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) | 4.50% | 7.50% |
7:30 | CNY | GDP (YoY) (Q1) | 4.40% | 4.00% |
12:00 | INR | WPI Inflation (YoY) (Mar) | 13.00% | 13.11% |
16:30 | EUR | German Buba Monthly Report |
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Prepared by
Anushree Saxena(Intern)
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Disclaimer: All information in this report is collected from various sites on the internet. Although we have taken all precautions for the correct representation of data however we do not take any responsibility for any errors and omissions. The technical analysis and views expressed are the author’s own views. We are not responsible for any losses on account of following the same.
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